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The data behind apocalypse 2030 is based on placing blame, not predicting the future.
For full text, links, and credits, go to: https://reason.com/video/2021/04/30/12-years-to-disaster-how-climate-activists-distort-the-evidence/
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Many officials and climate activists claim we have only 12 years to act on global warming. Where does this figure come from? A 2018 Special Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The second sentence of that document reads, “Global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.” The 12-year figure comes from subtracting the year of the report, 2018, from the earliest possible date of 1.5 degrees C warming, 2030.
The problem is that this was a statement about the past, dressed up to suggest that it’s about the future. It’s not about what will happen; it’s extrapolating from what has already happened. Actual temperatures in 2030 will depend on whether warming speeds up or slows down, and also on whether the year is warmer or colder than the long-term trend.
Why the 22-year range? The authors of the IPCC report defined the current rate using data from 1960 to 2017. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) land-ocean temperature series that underpins most popular reporting about warming, global excess temperatures were 0 in January 1960 and 0.94 degrees C in December 2017. So the Earth has to warm another 0.56 degrees C to reach 1.5 degrees C. Some fifth-grade math tells us that should happen in 34.55 years if warming continues at the same rate. We’d hit 1.5 degrees C on July 21, 2051. Different measurements might give a couple of years either way, but not 22 years.
The range of 2030 to 2052 is not about how warm the earth is but who’s responsible for the change in temperature. The figures reflect “anthropogenic warming,” or warming rooted in human activity. By citing a range of 2030 to 2052, the authors are indicating a high level of uncertainty. They’re not sure how much of the 0.17 degrees C per decade warming is “anthropogenic,” or rooted in human activity. They think it’s possible that humans are warming the Earth 0.3 degrees C and some unknown factor is actually cooling the Earth 0.13 degrees C. (The IPCC declined to make any of the report’s authors available for an interview).
If you think the problem with global warming is hotter temperatures (melting ice, rising sea levels, and other physical effects), then you should care about the year 2052, not 2030. But if you think the problem with global warming is that humans are tampering with something pristine—and you only consider the worst possible scenario—then 2030 is your date. Focusing on anthropogenic warming suggests that what’s happening in the real world matters less than who’s at fault.
Produced and edited by Justin Monticello; written by Monticello and Aaron Brown; camera by Zach Weissmueller; graphics by Isaac Reese; audio production by Ian Keyser.
Music: Aerial Cliff by Michele Nobler, Land of the Lion by C.K. Martin, Thoughts by ANBR, Flight of the Inner Bird by Sivan Talmor and Yehezkel Raz, and Run by Tristan Barton.
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About The Author
Yet these folks live on massive houses on the coasts, fly in private jets and other wasteful ideas.
Let’s go get me out. This is horrible. The most tremendous hate crime ever. Oh nothing to do with anybody get me out.
Everyone loves wind farms! As long as they are somewhere else….
How does geo engineering factor in?
Anyone who fills a sentence with 'we're like' and finishes with upward inflection can yak all they like – I'm switching channels!
So, is the real climate disaster actually our planets 6k year cycle?
I don't see any plans to stop the American war machine.. what an environmental disaster all those bombs are.
Yeah all these Idyouth scientists wannabies predict always twelve years, we’ll all die, like more-on Al Gore, Greta, the brat, Thurnberg, Alexandria Ocasio coitus interruptus.😅😅
Yeah all these Idyouth scientists wannabies predict always twelve years, we’ll all die, like more-on Al Gore, Greta, the brat, Thurnberg, Alexandria Ocasio coitus interruptus.😅😅
HOW DARE YOU , MORE-ONS.
Stupid lurch is acting crazy flying his private jet, and telling us not to do what this more-on is doing.
Anyone here in 2030. I'm here and the sea's are boiling in the east, there's dragons flying in the skies. Polar bears are fighting grizzly bears. I'm skiing to work in London. Animals are building an Ark for themselves. Monkeys are doing most of the work.
Sorry I was dreaming. Only 2024. Nevermind.
It's really a problem.
It's a modern version of The End is Nigh
Climate change will NOT end the world in 12 years !! It is only 6 until we ALL die from catastrophic heat or drown in rising oceans !!! Buy a Tesla TODAY & live to see tomorrow!!!
If you don't care about the planet please don't have kids.
Well this is a very honest point of view that every decent journalist should defend.
They.cant.even.predict.what.will.happen.tomorrow..let.alone.in.50.years
Exponential growth isn't jack to me. Kill every last species except man and cow while quadrupling energy consumption annually but there will be some innovative sainted genius that is going to make everything great. Elon Musk for example. The lizard person playing Bill Gates. AI is going to make me rich rich rich. Society will suck so hard the atmosphere will be devoid of CO2 and gases in general. Bright side people. Look at it.
tipping points can turn this planet into a new venus, keep in mind the ipcc is waaay underestimating climate change pace
Look the video up 32 climate predictions that haven't came true theses people are nuts global elitists use climate change to gain power an wealth.
Greta the Doom Gobblin. 😂
Its always 10 or 12 years away. And then happens NOTHING! Except MORE taxes!
Greta should get a A plus for acting ability and another one for her managing a foreign language.
Activists' claims about a tipping point are bogus because, among other things, tipping points occur only in physical systems with few degrees of freedom and the climate has numerous degrees of freedom, too many for tipping points. Or so says former Harvard and MIT physicist Dr. Richard Lindzen (now retired) who started studying climate before the field had become popularized and evangelized. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVSrTZDopM&ab_channel=JordanBPeterson
This is sensationalist nonsense.
Nobody claims this, absolutely no-one.
Check the science, not this misinformation.
I'm not worry about it. Why, when the world ends it will be the return of Lord Jesus Christ.
This hoax has been going on for over 100 years. Ppl are so easily manipulated
Want me to start believing in climate change? Stop demanding the only solution is totalitarian government. Innovation destroys regulation everytime.
The Sky is Falling!