Sabine Hossenfelder 
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I’m tired of both overly optimistic messages from climate activists and scare stories of the impending apocalypse. It’s about time we get realistic. “Net zero” by 2050 is not a realistic goal and it’s about time we admit it. I am afraid that many plans that are eating up money are fuelled by wishful thinking rather than by rational thought. Let’s have a look.
Correction to what I say at 01:30, that should have been “according to current policies and actions” (not just “policies”)
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About The Author
History of humanity :
Warm climate periods : prosperity.
Cold climate periods : abject misery.
Just because the government says so doesn't make it right. Global Warming : An inconvenient history (google it) is a good layman's video about climate change. Carbon Dioxide does contribute to warming. It will heat up the earth but what if there is a negative feedback loop. The earth warms up. Does this contribute to more volcanic activity? Will that volcanic activity reduce the temperature? I refuse to worry about the future. There are so many unknowns and humans are arrogant and think they know everything. I don't know and don't care. Live life to the fullest. You could be stuck some stupid war in the future and your life will suck anyway. Enjoy life.
—Forbes: Renewable Energy Is Now The Cheapest Option – Even Without Subsidies
—UtilityDive: Renewables would provide cheaper energy than 99% of US coal plants and catalyze a just energy transition
—Cipher: Renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels in Asia
Many of the comments here seem to think people are just trying to make money. I think the real problem is that there is no money to implement all these phantasmagorical plans, so we ban plastic straws, declare victory, and call it a day.
At the current concentration of CO2 the realistic global temperature assuming net zero is reached (it won't be) is around 4°C higher than preindustrial. I base this on what temperatures were last time the CO2 was this high 3 million years ago. There is a lag time between concentration and temperature rise. We are still in that lag time, so even if we get to net zero things will continue to warm. And the estimated residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is somewhere between 4 and 1000 years depending on the source. So who knows when and how this ends?
“The good Earth – we could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy.”
― Kurt Vonnegut Jr
Is the first time I liked your video.
On the other hand, "scientists" used to think that they are beyond mundane talks, but a real helpful discussion has to account for real problems like "CURRUPTION* in politics, including worldwide institutions that are instruments for providing profits or power to interested parties.
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The "targets" are based on computer models based on fantasy
You are devout believer in the idea of a "greenhouse effect" and believer that co2 causes warming
Climate change is like religion and evil people are preaching it for money incentives.
COAL AND OIL ARE NOT "FOSSIL FUELS"! If oil or Petroleum is a fossil fuel then why is it not "White"? If you want to get "realistic" then Hydrogen instead of "gasoline" would be used to fuel cars. Petroleum is a Carbon + Hydrogen molecule. We are already using Hydrogen Gas to power our cars. But it is "dirtied up" by Carbon which creates 100% of the pollution out of a tailpipe, and contributes to "Global Warming". Get rid of the Carbon, use pure Hydrogen gas and steam is the only thing out of the tailpipe. Combustion engines are not the problem. It's the fuel we use to power them. To use Hydrogen water would be filled in the fuel tank and simple electrolysis seperates the Hydrogen from the Oxygen. Brilliant!
To get "Realistic" means that without India, Russia and China agreeing that there is such a thing called "Climate Change" or Global Warming so their countries quit polluting so much you will never be able to get any kind of change in the world and the weather. Which is a 2nd point. How do we know it is not Governments throughout the world trying to "Manipulate" the Weather that is the TRUE CAUSE of Climate Change. Seems to me the fact Russia, China, and India do not even acknowledge Climate Change would point to the fact it is those countries Causing IT!
The LIES about COAL, AND OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS NEED TO CEASE BEFORE ANY REAL CHANGE CAN OCCUR ABOUT "CLIMATE CHANGE" THE ENTIRE OIL INDUSTRY AND IT'S ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT THE WORLD IS BASED ON LIES! IT IS NOT A "FOSSIL FUEL" NOR A "LIMITED RESOURCE". OIL WELLS REFILL. MAKING PETROLEUM AN UNLIMITED RESOURCE! AS LONG AS THE LIES CONTINUE NO PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. I AM DISAPPOINTED IN YOU SABINE FOR NOT BEING HONEST!. SHAME ON YOU!
In America, in the Midwest we just experienced one of the "Coolest" July's in recorded history. Not a few days, the entire month and into August. Things are back to a normal summer now, but in one day the high temp's will only be around 80 again. And the low 60's to high 50's at night. For scientists to say they "understand" the earth's weather is the first lie we must get past to be able to have honest and real change about pollution in the world. Scientists do not understand the earth, and are completely wrong regarding 90% of what they say is correct. No it is the lies in science that hold back true progress in the world!
For the US, I think it's tragic that global warming's first spokesman was Al Gore, a very polarizing figure. Had the movement had the ability to choose a spokesman (and of course they didn't), I don't think that they would have chosen one that 49.99% of Americans didn't like, and were tired of hearing from.
Why does the Obama's have a mansion at sea level Sabine?
0.04% of CO2 in our atmosphere and you want to drop that to 0.01%? Are you insane? Those levels would kill all life on this planet.
Excellent 👍👌
the definition of climate is: the study of the change of the weather….
climate change is somebody's trying to sell something extra, also known as marketing…
110,000 years ago during the Eemian interglacial, Grog turned to Thag and said, "We have a global warming problem. It's time to get serious about climate change." Then suddenly…ICE…everywhere.
Nothing will be done other than transfer of wealth to the politically well connected for useless projects.
Sometimes, Sabine, the truth really is upsetting.
Hi , can vulcanos cool the planet ?
Yet the heartland institute says the opposite. I’m of the opinion that there is climate change but it’s a natural thing. Back before the industrial revolution it was said we were heading for an ice age and if it wasn’t for the industrial revolution we would now be In an ice age. I believe too much has been put onto climate change and there is too much money to be made from it and to hell withe the truth.
All those fossil fuels were locking carbon out of the atmosphere
Humans are Earth's mechanism to release carbon back into the atmosphere fulfilling the carbon cycle.
Sabina, u overestimate humans influence and underestimate Earth's homeostasis capability.
You show charts of Europe and America CO2 emmision but the largest emitter by far of co 2 is the people's Republic of China.
And guess what: the factory of the world doesn't care how much CO2 they admit
CO2 is not evil.
It is essential to all life on earth.
Climate Change can be observed by tracking the weather patterns. The climate has been warming according to NASA. The facts should be based on reliable sources.
Along shallow coasts, wall up around shallow areas, make those areas even shallower, perhaps 2 or 3" deep. Region for constant cloud making? Along poles, floating sheets of recycled plastics, as to keep the cold water, cold
I fear those interested in your opinion are the proverbial choir
and the reality is there are large uncertainties..
and people simply lie…
just stop using fossil fuel.. and THEN ,may be, you are legit to tell other to emit less..
Mankind is the new kid on the block. Written language in in It's infancy and being woked to death. The Earth will do what she has always done
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It's time to get cereal
I hate climate change and the fact that not a single youtuber is trying to debunk this hoax, where is even one youtuber capable of telling me that its not real to make me feel better
Am I against it, certainly not! I think, realistically, it won't work. I will use this at work from now on. thx!
Realistically you are a climate denier (Stage 5 specifically) because instead of teaching people what's cause of the problem and solution, you are saying here that scientists which have written IPCC report and other other climate reports are not serious. You are a scientist, why don't you write a report and explain people?
Realistically these are 5 stages of Climate Deniers. You are at level-5 as most climate deniars at this time.
Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists.
Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause.
Stage 3: Deny It's a Problem.
Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It.
Stage 5: It's too Late.
Now wait a second. Where are the non BS plans? Just saying everything is going to shit and stepping down is what's secretly going on behind the BS plans anyway!
We need more education on what 3 degrees mean. Most people don’t take it seriously becase how much difference can 1 degree do? Who cares if it’s 20 degrees or 21, you can barely feel the difference.
People need to know what the consequences of 1 degree, vs 2, vs 3, vs 4 actually is.
The world economic forum wants a one world government called the great reset cradle to the grave control their behind the climate change machine their slogan is "you will own nothing and be happy" it's all about control don't listen to them they will never give up their big multiple homes yachts private jets limousines while they tell you to live in poverty this should tell you everything you need to know they are hypocrites whatever they say do the opposite Barack Milhouse bonito Obama owns three homes one of which is a 17 million dollar house in Martha's vineyard right next to the ocean he doesn't believe in it and he certainly doesn't believe in the oceans rising and don't forget Martha's vineyard is the whitest place on Earth not that there's anything wrong with being white we are All God's children and we're beautiful God is awesome follow him not the wef
Please watch this documentary Google the great global warming swindle by Martin Durkin
All you need to know to show that AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) has no foundation is the fact that each year the atmosphere exchanges 1/5 of its CO2 with the oceans, vegetation and other sinks.
The oceans hold at least 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere so the man-made CO2 content of the atmosphere is continually diluted.
Given the high number of comments from ignorant people denying anthropic climate change, let me post this:
It is scientifically proven that it is indeed human activities through their GHG (greenhouse gases) emissions that disrupt the climate, there is a scientific consensus (more than 99% of published climate studies confirm this), see this study : (pdf doc to download) "Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature", Mark Lynas et al.
Also the IPCC (whose role is to summarize the findings on climate change through checking the various peer-reviewed articles) fully confirms this (and please spare us the usual denialist BS on IPCC: this is not because you dislike the findings that it proves the messenger is unfit).
As for thinking for yourself (a classic among “skeptics” of all kinds), here are my thoughts:
1- We know that the temperature is rising (+1.3°C since the start of the industrial era), although it has been generally stable for 11,000 years (with only slight fluctuations).
2- we have known the GHG mechanism for 2 centuries (Fourier, 1824)
3- we know that CO2 is a GHG : first physical demonstration of CO2’s warming effect in a laboratory by Tyndall in 1861.
4- we measure that the CO2 content in atmosphere is rising (280ppm before the industrial era, now 420ppm) while the other important GHG, water, has a stable content
5- we know that more GHG means more heat, the saturation of CO2 concerning the greenhouse effect only concerns the lower layers (pressure 1 atmosphere) but not the upper layers (so the addition of CO2 does indeed increase the greenhouse effect)
6- we know that we emit billions of tonnes of CO2 annually, 40Gt (transport, heating, industry, etc.)
7- we measure that the C14 content of atmospheric CO2 decreases, which confirms that the excess CO2 is fossil carbon (therefore added by man, since the other possible source of fossil carbon, volcanism, emits 100 times less CO2 than human activities).
8- we know that, while the ground temperature rises, the upper layers of the atmosphere (the stratosphere) have been cooling for several decades, which confirms that this is not a warming that comes from the sun or other radiation (otherwise the stratosphere would also heat up) but the effect of GHGs (publication by Syukuro Manabe, Nobel Prize winner in Physics).
9- we have measurements by the Nimbus satellites of the terrestrial radiation, which therefore make it possible to see the radiation that the Earth sends back to space, in relation to the radiation from the terrestrial ground (the difference between the two is therefore what is absorbed by the atmosphere): we can see the bands absorbed by the various GHGs, and especially the absorption by CO2. The shape of the spectrum observed around wavelengths of 15µm (main absorption of CO2 in the infrared) corresponds very well to what the theory of GHGs indicated. A PROOF : an experiment made by satellites simply demonstrated that CO2 is indeed the driver of the warming, see « Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010 », by D. R. Feldman et al.
10- the climate change deniers, after more than 40 years of in-depth research on the climate (Charney report in 1979 which raised the alarm and prompted numerous studies on the climate) have NO OTHER scientifically plausible explanation other than CO2. For example, “climate cycles” (Milankovic) indicate that we are in an interglacial period with a very stable climate for 11,000 years (end of the last glaciation, the next one is expected in around 50,000 years), or also “cosmic rays” (Svensmark) hypothesis which has been shown to be false.
No matter how great the plan, money always wins over human minds in the end.
As a Canadian, I'm ashamed at Canada managing to miss literally every climate milestone since it signed the Paris Agreement. Their promises to the world are utterly meaningless. 🫤
Yea the plans are all marketing spin. It the world we live in now.