April 9, 2025

38 thoughts on “Bayesian yacht disaster: how it unfolded

  1. mmm? something not quite right here – however the boat is on the ocean bed having taken out rather a lot of influential people. My first thought is was the captain who he says he was, if he is, then he'll be hung out to dry! no pun intended – to many anomalies

  2. The getaway submarine which they boarded while everyone was sleeping then deliberately collided with the keel in order to stage the disaster before heading to South America would be my guess if they aren't found. The waterspout video was from somewhere else entirely and had nothing to do with it.

  3. The ancient Greeks, Romans, Phonecians, and many others, called it very bad weather. Or is this the first time a boat has sunk in stormy weather. Same for the South Atlantic.

  4. Every breaking news feed on here is literally about this yacht and nothing else. Can anyone explain why none of the other 50000 plus accidental deaths that have happened globally this last week are getting the same media coverage ? Of course this is a tragedy but so are a lot of others, yet we see virtually nothing.

  5. Not buying it. The yacht would have swung with the increasing wind and the sail would automatically furl. The ballast and beam were huge to hold a mast that tall. Former Bering Sea in winter mate on bigger (and smaller) vessels, 190 knot sleet sideways didn't capsize vessels in desperate Bering seas. This is the Med.

  6. RIP to the ones that have lost their lives, and I give great respect to the captain and crew for saving everyone they could.
    I’ve only seen one waterspout in my lifetime and when the rotation immediately stopped the tonnage of water dropped in a massive explosion to the water surface.

  7. Its weird how Bayesian , is all to do with probability , and what is the probability that , two people involved in a major trial , both disappear within days of each other , both involved in what appears are accidents , its almost like a great artist displaying greatness to the world , look what i can do , to impress his friend's , almost like a insiders joke.

  8. For me as NA rather than considering the irresponsability for not to look for harbour waters while the storm approach presumably knowing by the weather forestcast (Note: historically Roman galleys or mechant ships offten capsized on the same way on this area) and the combination of the vessel heading (presumably transversal to the incoming waves or paralel to the shoreline, anchored not sailing) with the main enviromental actions on the hull expose to the waves (load condition) and the fluctuating gusting wind forces on the mast area, lead to the yacht to oscillate (Roll) with amplitudes reaching the Roll resonance physic phenomena (ship Roll amplitudes in which any external excitation force can induce an unrestrained oscillation motion) that over come the yacht transversal stability capability inducing with a counter moment capsized the vessel and flooded after through the open hatch , very sad event , then the most probably new regulation for this type of vessel its seem for me that it will be the requirement for encrease the number of water tight compartiments (e.g.double hull) to allow a buoyancy capability on this kind of events although as the designer said while the yacht sail its unsinkable but anchored with open hatches heading transversal to the waves and wind is a very different history. Rgds

  9. Yes. Agree. Someone is definitely watching Whatever goes around comes around. Especially when you consider what happened to the co-defendant. Our actions always have consequences 🙏

  10. This is a sign. The same people that control the weather.
    Well, now it turned against them.
    This is just a message. Keep playing with the weather, and you'll end up like this

  11. So all the other boats were unharmed but the Multi million dollar yacht holding the outspoken billionaire sunk. Strange how it lost complete power just before it sunk and none of the other vessels did. Almost like it was planned during bad weather. LMFAO

  12. Important revelation. The tender is missing. Its normally secured on deck when not in use. This could mean that the rear door or the side door or both were open at the time and the tender tied up to either one but still in the water. The open door(s) would have facilitated the flooding of the vessel, along with the raised keel (which lessened stability).

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