Count Everything 
The channel gets lots of comments from people concerned that we’re already at 1.5 degrees of warming compared to pre-industrial levels due to climate change.
As temperatures rise, the likely hood of devastating tipping points greatly increases.
I this video I try to explain where we are and that however bad it might at first seem, things are actually worse.
The TED talk by Johan Rockström that’s featured in the video can be found here –
YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl6VhCAeEfQ
TED (with a transcript) – www.ted.com/talks/johan_rockstrom_the_tipping_points_of_climate_change_and_where_we_stand
source
About The Author
If you've enjoyed any of the videos on the channel and want to support me, then you're welcome to buy me a slice of (virtual) pizza via the buymeacofffe website – https://www.buymeacoffee.com/counteverything
There are no benefits to you, apart from receiving my thanks. I don't need the money, but I do sometimes need the encouragement.
I've fallen and I can't get up. Humanity beyond The tipping point of most life on Earth. tardigrades have managed to live past five major Extinction events. as war seems to be our major way of expressing ourselves and is the most destructive for children and other living things, and it seems like we're not going to stop. in fact we are witnessing a genocide, and it seems we're just going to escalate to Iran at the cost of our living planet.
I liked the moment Count talked about the political appetite. We all know that change is coming. Politicians know that they cannot foil their masters. And the general populace doesn't want any threats to their standards of living either. But there is always an appetite for blame that can lead populists to head for war or other extreme measures that don't actually address humanity's overshoot issues. What would it mean to face these issues head on? I think that only a massive reduction of the human enterprise will suffice. That starts and ends with reducing population to well below a billion humans (and the fellow beings of the stockyards). Imagine a world of no container ships, private automobiles, airplanes. In other words we are talking a return to pre-industrial society! Except that would be with a highly degraded earth system that is so damaged as to be unsupportive of life as was then known.
Are humans going to avoid that by organized means? That is an unreasonable notion.
6:00 – count everything: nothing special about 1.5C.
Rockstrom https://youtu.be/JaboF3vAsZs (37:00min): 1.5 is not a goal, not a target. Its a physical limit
Are you going to talk about the flooding where you are?
How do you lower your home electricity usage, have less people in it an use less.
Very good, Count. When I started doing talks about climate change sometime in the noughties I would explain that the difference in global average temperature between the last Glacial Period (aka 'Ice Age') and pre-industrial temperatures was something in the region of 6C – and during that Glaciation, where I live in York, north-east UK, there was up to a mile of ice over the land surface. Then I'd explain that the future temperatures could reach +2C by 2100, which would be an utter utter disaster, but if they reached +4C by that time, that would be the end of civilisation, and if 6C, that would be the extinction of our species. I also explained that in the past, there had been a number of very rapid global temperature increases, but no very rapid coolings – cooling happens slowly. These rapid increases could be jumps of many degrees in just a few decades, caused by amplifying feedback loops.
I'm therefore relieved that it is looking unlikely that our somewhat linear temperature increases are looking like NOT going up to +4C, but only to utter utter disaster level. However these levels of warming are dangerous as they could trigger tipping points and feedback loops, and the possibility of rapid warming way-more than +6C. Let's hope not, eh? I have 2 young-adult offspring and I worry about them – and the rest of humanity, and all the other lovely living things.
Hansen/Sato july 2024: We've been going up at 0.32-0.34C per decade since 2010. If WMO 10 year average 2014-2023 is 1.2, that means 2019 was about 1.2C and we are now +0.16C … So 1.36C in 2024 (by WMO numbers)
Regarding shorter non-trend data , we are pretty much guaranteed to get 2 year average over 1.5C by Copernicus numbers.
We are documenting our own demise and not doing anything…😢
We humans especially those living in the tropics know normal body temperature is around 36°C. Now add 1.5°C and go to Doctor and when thermometer comes out of your mouth reading 37.5°C what follows is alarm and immediate hospitalization.
Why we are so thickheaded dearth is at our doorstep.
They keep moving the baseline, making the measurement a political tool and not a scientific one. We are already an extinct species, we just haven't realize it.
There's been a more refined study on what the baseline should be based on other analysis of historical temperatures and CO2 levels. We are likely well beyond 1.5 degrees based on that (as if it matters).
A recent study has indeed provided new insights into pre-industrial global temperatures, suggesting that they were lower than previously estimated. This finding has important implications for our understanding of climate change and the goals set by international agreements like the Paris Agreement.
## Key Findings
The study analyzed spatially complete blended global temperatures from 23 simulations across 7 different climate models, focusing on the period from 1401 to 1800[1]. This timeframe was chosen because it predates the major anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases and coincides with a diverse range of natural forcings (volcanic and solar)[1].
The key findings of the study include:
1. Temperature Difference: The mean temperatures from different segments of the 1401-1800 period were found to be cooler than the late-19th century baseline (1850-1900) by 0.03°C to 0.19°C, with a multi-model mean of 0.09°C[1].
2. Centennial Variability: The study observed considerable centennial variability in both simulations and temperature reconstructions of the past millennium. Some periods, such as the 16th century, were comparable in warmth to the late-19th century, while others were nearly 0.2°C cooler[1].
3. Causes of Variations: The major cause of temperature variations between centuries in the pre-industrial period was found to be the varying frequency of volcanic eruptions, with consistent cooling due to lower CO2 levels and a smaller influence from solar activity[1].
## Implications
This study suggests that the "true" pre-industrial baseline temperature might be lower than previously thought. This has several important implications:
1. Climate Sensitivity: The findings indicate that the Earth's climate may be more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than previously estimated.
2. Paris Agreement Goals: The study suggests that we may be closer to exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement than previously believed.
3. Historical Context: It provides a more nuanced understanding of temperature variations in the pre-industrial era, highlighting the role of natural forcings like volcanic activity.
## Uncertainties and Limitations
The researchers acknowledge several sources of uncertainty in their findings:
1. Model Discrepancies: There are ongoing debates about the cooling response to large volcanic eruptions in model simulations compared to proxy temperature reconstructions[1].
2. Forcing Uncertainties: The magnitude of past solar forcing and estimates of early industrial aerosols and land use changes remain uncertain[1].
3. Anthropogenic Influence: The study assumes that the increase in CO2 since the Little Ice Age is largely anthropogenic, which is not definitively established[1].
This study provides valuable insights into pre-industrial temperatures and underscores the complexity of climate science. It highlights the importance of continued research to refine our understanding of historical climate patterns and their implications for current and future climate change projections.
Citations:
[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5544117/
[2] https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/07/12/global-temperatures-surpass-the-15c-pre-industrial-threshold-for-12-months-in-a-row
[3] https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09072024/average-global-temperatures-above-pre-industrial-levels-for-12-months/
[4] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
It’s in the rear view mirror 🤷♂️
The "climate question" just got a lot more complicated…
– terrestrial ecosystems took up very little carbon in 2023 (i.e. perhaps land ecosystems are tipping to carbon sources, not sinks) and the oceans may be close to capacity for carbon uptake / drawdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71dyKemUG4Q&t=240s
– there's been a sharp increase in methane & other GHG emissions (more potent than carbon dioxide)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijCiGExC2fE&t=107s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk9vulmEbqc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Nml3HWvjqE&t=2s
– the slowing / collapse of the AMOC that will bring much colder conditions to ireland, the uk and the nordic countries while concentrating more heat towards the equator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ArfmobaCyc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v05aVcbqEwY&t=1s
– it's expected that the El Nino phenomena (the warmer ENSO cycle that caused global temps to exceed 1.5C in 2023) will occur more often
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_uHJnaD-E&t=1s
State of the Climate – Update 2023 / 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mOiZDUMkYc&t=42s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAOsgM56Eyg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6GBK-i_2OQ
I thought we’d hit 2 above preindustrial a few times already
Great video as always, not sensationalist just clear and easy to understand.
I personally agree with everything you said, there are other negative factors as some have commented but also new scientific developments that could help enormously.
It is most important for us as members of broad society to push our leaders towards the right choices. It's not simple and it won't be easy but I commend you for putting accurate and balanced information in to the public's consciousness.
So sorry about your lamp, really you should be considered for a Nobel prize for your efforts but I guess that's not up to YouTube.
Still, it will probably last longer than a sausage roll.
If the AMOC slows down or stops,the ice from the Arctic will reach Scotland.
we can put things back in balance or nature will do it for us
vonnegut said we might be the first species to go extinct because we thought survival wasn't cost effective lol
Are we there? If we are, then we'll be past it in no time. What then? Now is the times to start edging quickly to the lifeboats.
This guy has been around for a long time. First saw him on the beaches years ago,. But there is something I like about him. I am sure its his natural curiosity and enthusiasm for the science of these extreme changes. What a gift it is to take the statistics out of the numbers and emphasize the reality. keep up this excellent investigation my science friend.
Save the Earth, don't give birth!
Well the problem is the oil oligarchies see where this transition is headed now that there is some momentum. So they are working really hard to bring it to a grinding halt. Taking over the COPS was just the beginning unfortunately.
Should start temps after the plague because so many people died that co2 levels dropped and temps lowered a bit
We've been well over 2c. for quite sometime now!
The original baseline is actually 1750.
The IPCC has stated that climate change is irreversible!
A lot of videos out there pissing and moaning about population decline and its effects on the western economies when worldwide we are headed to 10.5 billion before any decrease. We have a carrying capacity of 2 billion living simple lives. We are at 8 billion +. Until we get the population under control there is not much hope. Follow professor William Rees and ecological footprint. Global warming is just a symptom of the problem.
Any Governments have not an effing clue, they are ruled / hoodwinked by the fossil fuel companies, you can't vote them out.😆
Glad I have never had kids🧐
Gaz UK
The world's not going to do much of anything to stop this. So don't be stressed, be happy. Live your life the best you can.
After the last 2 big El Niños, temperature never declined, it just stopped growing
So… We're likely at 1.5°C
Count, I am glad to see you making videos again about what we need to know about the climate crisis after a short period of time. Previously we did have some discussion in this channel and well, look at the positive way, seeing more and more people watch your videos and many comments this time. People are willing to know, and we could share our views, helpful ideas if have any and act on. There are so many different aspects about climate crisis and I look at some roots of it, trying to find the best options we have. We do not have green energy enough to replace fossil fuel, practically no. It means our system, capitalism is not consistent to the nature, simply say, not sustainable. So the result is that if we really fight the climate crisis, not only stop using fossil fuel, but change of the system, produce less. In fact, we do not need to produce that much.
Every second, it's 5 Hiroshima atomic bombs worth of HEATING to Planet Earth that humans currently generate.
Discounting the greenhouse gases produced by the military which are kept SECRET.
Flying a F35 for 60 minutes requires close to 5,000 L fuel! Just imagine the tonnage of Greenhouse gases produced by the Military overall!
Yes, we have reached 1.5°C, so we will reach 2°C at 2042 about…
So, we have 15 to 20 "good" years left.. try to enjoy them…
well done on the award Count. well deserved! copernicus says we are at 1.64c above for the last 12 months average, so this year has to end well above 1.5c average. do you not think stopping the shipping the aerosols has caused an extra jump in global temps. and I don't think we are on a straight trend line isn't global warming accelerating? or is that what you said? taking average trend lines doesn't really work if temperature increases keep accelerating decade on decade. I don't think the tipping points go at certain temperatures then will go in a certain sequence. and we are in the first which is the end of the land carbon sink, (and the coral reef die off) and probably a load of others
Oh yeah… We're already there, Baby.
When the Canadian fires that made New York's sky orange put up the amount of CO2 equivalent to THREE YEARS of all human activity in Canada, or half a year's worth of all U.S. CO2 emissions…
Or the year of the Paradise Fire in California, where all the fires that year put up the same amount of CO2 as California saved from 14 years of its emissions laws (Haha California; I drive an older diesel)…
Then yeah, these are self-reinforcing feedback loops, a.k.a. "Tipping Points."
Have a nice day.
to top all the bad news, Guy McPherson just commented on a paper that estimates the ECS of CO2 at 7.2 C from ocean core data going back 15 million years. This is even higher than Hansen's top of the range 6 C. It seems as though we are truly heading to armageddon. (why does my spell checker always hate that word?)
Thank you for all your effort and your highly rational presentations.