Global Futures: What can we do to effectively tackle the polycrisis? | Lancaster Univ. | Audio Only
Rupert Read 
“There is a brief and rapidly closing window…to prevent civilisational collapse” – Rupert Read. A vote was taken after I spoke, a straw poll: incredibly, the clear majority agreed with my assessment, a few thought I hadn’t gone far enough, and not one person thought that I had overegged the pudding.
Across the UK in communities, workplaces and wherever they have power, people from all walks of life are organising the kinds of serious climate action that will make governments take notice. The Climate Majority Project is a rallying place for citizen climate action. We help projects to grow, get funding, and connect with as many willing hands as possible. https://ClimateMajorityProject.com
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Thanks for a dose of "Green Realsim" with depth, while staying constructive.
I think it's important to communicate to the general public how catastrophic a 2c or 3c temperature rise will be. Most lay people will hear those numbers and think to themselves "3c isn't so bad… I barely notice the difference!". There needs to be more impactful communication to the public than "1.5c" or "2c" or "3c"
There’re many obstacles to sharing the unadulterated truth, thanks for overcoming them. It’s extremely refreshing.
The majority tend to compartmentalise all of these crises and don’t seem to collate them to see the bigger picture which is exhaustingly frustrating to say the least.
When it comes to ‘tackling’ our predicament however, I believe Mr.Hallam’s methodology is better (I won’t elaborate because censorship). You guys suggest that we need change people’s and corp’s mindsets through various means, I’d argue that’s fanciful under this (mainly) global regime. We need a new system in order to enable a new mindset.
Edit: we’ve already triggered multiple positive feedback loops (and therefore the tipping point), the question is how rapid is the cascading effect going to unfold — the last couple of years seems to indicate rapidly.
We are headed for the most consequential negotiations of human history. Right now, the global players are jockeying for position. Nations are moving directly to the issue of borders and maintaining operational efficiency in regards to weaknesses exposed by our covid experience. Our future is defined by our ability to maintain civiilizational structure while collapsing our reliance on fossil fuels.
It should be becoming clear that very few areas have medium to long term viability. The momentum of human population pressures will continue to increase in coming decades. Our challenges are many and great! Those most capable will find their way. A path to the future exists, but it is a chokepoint for all others. We will feel the path narrow over the coming decades as our actions now will dictate.
Good Luck everyone🍀🍀🍀
I'm an environmentalist who supports Musk. Nobody has done more for electrification. On the media, it is undeniable that an alternative to mainstream media is needed. Here's a really good tip for people trying to move the needle on the environment and the metacrisis: stop talking about the incredibly complex conflict in Israel as if you're experts in it. Many environmentalists have completely undermined the movement with their unbelievably arrogant proclamations on Israel and Gaza.
102904 The second law of thermodynamics may be false conventional wisdom. Let's face the wonder of full heat use.
The second law of thermodynamics was developed during v8ictorian england's scientific and religious fascination with steam engines.
The second law is behind modern refrigerators needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. The interior coldness draws in exterior heat through the cabinet insulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance. The net thermal output equals the electrical input with energy not being gained or lost in this refrigeration system including its forced waste. Unencumbered refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it.
It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity.
Full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, self contained elevators, safe rooms, and horizontal transports.
In a flourishing civillization, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, robot test equipment, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminous signs, power hand tools, ditch diggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people as individuals or larger social groups see fit.
Some equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks.
If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or
teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones.
Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in.
A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson (observation) Nyquest (theory) thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive direct current electricity when the electrical load electrical resistance is equal to the array internal electrical resistance.
Maximum calculated electrical power output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array.
There are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter.
Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab:
P type boron doped
—–‐——‐—-___— Out
🔻🔻🔻🔻
■■■■■■___ + Out
N type phosphorous doped
All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; the N type semiconductor cathodes or common cathode abuts the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is always a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more on equatorial dry desert summer days and less on polar desert winter nights.
Focusing on the composition of one simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type conductivity) on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type conductivity) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact.
A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap.
Inside the diode, heat is absorbe; outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The voltage of a diode array is likely to be small so many similar arrays need to be put in series to build higher voltage.
Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity.
A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode.
There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people, mostly as independent teams, will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of experiemental efforts.
These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous.
Aloha
Charles M Brown
Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
102904 Nanometer scale uniformly aligned parallel diode arrays may be a practical way of absorbing ambient heat. Ambient heat is uniform on a micrometer and larger scale and non uniform on a nanometer scale. Plausibly, heat absorbtion at the non uniform scale is available as Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise that would yield, by conversion without gain or loss, an equivelent amount of electrical energy.
AND
Diode voltage / current characterstics can be displayed on an XY tracing oscìlloscope. Thermal electrical noise power in resistors can be displayed by time sweeps of voltage on an oscilloscope. Each such time sweep shows unique randomness.
AND
A simple "Special Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis" model indicated that diodes in uniform aligntment parallel would aggregate simulated partially rectified thermal electrical noise.
Maximum direct current electrical power, half, is transfered from a direct current electrical source to the electrical load when the electrical resistance of the two parts is equal. Calculated matched resistance output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array.
There are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter.
Creditable independent replicatable proof of concept protypes beyond improper influence are needed.
Aloha
Charles M Brown
Kilauea, Kauai, Hawaii 96754
Good conversation. What is missing is the development of small settlements that allow people to exist with minimal reliance on the default economy. The production of basic human needs with minimal energy and maximum environmental restoration while providing meaning, social cohesion and simple comfort requires skills that most of us lack. Living workshops to develop these skills is essential.
Would require degrowth and currently no capitalist government on the planet will ever consider it.
If you know the truth you'll know the crisis is being managed.
All we gotta do is scale back economic activity to a point where it's sustainable… for 8 billion people. That''s all we gotta do.
🙂
Nothing. Nobody is doing anything.
We're toast.
Have now read The Deluge twice and I think it should be mandatory school reading, the young need to understand what their future holds so they can start adapting.
Rupert, one thing you may not see is that many if not the most of people had enough of the current distopian and hedonistic society, it makes them sick both physically and mentally, so the idea of this all ending is actually welcome and feels relieving for many even if the new state will bring misery of imaginable proportions. It is all in the famous quote from Sartre "Hell is other people".
Made this parody up. Feel free to share
I’m an Idiot
(A parody based on Monty Python’s I’m a Lumberjack)
Lead: I’m an idiot and that’s ok.
I believe the lies media vomit out each day.
Chorus: He’s an idiot and that’s ok
He believes lies media vomit out each day.
Lead: Let’s cut down trees. Let’s eat our lunch. Let’s go to the lavatory.
Every day let’s go shopping and have buttered scones for tea.
Chorus: We cut down trees. We eat our lunch.
We go to the lavatory.
Every day we’ll go shopping and have buttered scones with tea.
We’re all idiots and that’s ok. We believe the lies media vomit out each day.
Lead: I cut down trees, breathe wildfire smoke
Bulldoze wild fields of flowers
What bugs me most is watching
Men dress up like me ma.
Chorus: He cuts down trees, breathes wildfire smoke
Bulldozes fields of flowers
What bugs him most is watching
Men dress up like his ma?…
(As in the original, the Chorus fidgets and looks nervous, but resumes heartily on the refrain)
We’re all idiots and that’s ok.
We believe wha media vomiteaches up each day.
Lead: I cut down trees, pollute the land, the oceans and the sky. I’m living large for right now. The rest of life can die.
Chorus: He cuts down trees, pollutes the land, the ocean and the sky. He’s living large for right now. The rest of life can die…?
(As in the original skit during this last bit the Chorus begins to breaks down, using questioning, agitated, raised voices but in this version turns and accosts the lead singer)
Capitalism is a suicide pact. It is based on the false assumption that Nature, the ecosphere/atmosphere/biosphere within which we live, and upon which we rely for our very existence, is an ‘externality’… that Nature has value only when monetized.
A forest has no value until it is turned into lumber…
Clear rivers flowing unimpeded to the sea have no value… until dammed and, thus, monetized.
There is no value in wetlands; they should be (how did Joni put it?) paved and converted to parking lots.
There is no value whatsoever to a spectacular sunset (unless one can take pictures of it and start an online channel where it’s then possible to monetize images of Nature)
One cannot tech one’s way out of a situation one tech’d oneself into.
Einstein once said there were only two things that were infinite: the Universe and human stupidity. And he wasn’t so sure about the Universe…
It’s been too late for a decade or two. Now it’s totally obvious to all who dig a little for accurate information.
We need #solarpunk
Of course, attempts at adaptation are necessary, with no expense spared. Having said that, I don't see how it's going to spare us, on a planet that is contiuously becoming more hostile to all life. The mass extinctions, the collapsing ecosystems, the end of natural carbon 'sinks', massive crop failures, and tipping points, will present intractible obstacles.
Eventually, after a natural culling that includes humans, our future may consist of survivors that number in mere thousands, or millions….not billions. Adaptation may save people in certain extreme weather events, but they will still need to eat, and obtain clean water in a world that, even now, offers only treated drinkable water.
Of course people put their hands up, it is Lancaster!