StarTalk 
Why were climate models so wrong about 2023? Neil deGrasse Tyson learns about why 2023 was hotter than we expected it to be and what effects need to be factored into future climate modeling with climatologist at NASA Goddard Institute, Gavin Schmidt.
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Science meets pop culture on StarTalk! Astrophysicist & Hayden Planetarium director Neil deGrasse Tyson, his comic co-hosts, guest celebrities & scientists discuss astronomy, physics, and everything else about life in the universe. Keep Looking Up!
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00:00 – Introduction: Climate Update
2:00 – 2023 Hottest Year on Record
6:55 – Why Our Predictions Were Wrong
8:49 – Factoring New Data & The Impact of Aerosols
11:52 – Could We Use Aerosols to Cool the Earth?
12:57 – We Have Agency
15:10 – What Happens to The Carbon in the Ocean?
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About The Author
What was your biggest takeaway from this Explainer?
Astrophysicists succeed by failing in the right direction by a moderate order of magnitude…
With the magnetic shielding is down 30%, could this have something to do with it?
Do those buoys measure the depth of thermocline?
I belive humans affect their enviroment and climate. But I don't buy into the religion of "climate crisis" in regads to the climate change. I certainly don't belive I need to nuter my self because the neighbour has 9 children. I certainly don't claim to understand the sience. I have many questions that needs answers. How many different climate models and scenarios are there? How many of the models are accurate ( following the actual real outcome). How has the number of actual measuring points changed the last 200 years? Does it change outcome or interpretation? Have we used same measuring system all the time? Are there difference in outcome due to measuring system changes? We can't tell the future weather with any reasonabel accuracy how can we prognostice climate change (weather over a decade)? Doesn't the error grow bigger over time? How does the population changes affect climate? Are the current solutions really valid? Wind power for exampel. After 40 years of windmills they still don't carry their own cost and rely on suventions. We still can't store energy from them on a reasonabel level nor balance the outputto the need at that they only work 50% of the time. I have lived for >50 years. Over that period of time many forecast from so called scientist have been awfully wrong and they all were certain. Just as right and certain as the doomsday cults that forecasted the end of the world. 😂😂 Also I think there are more pressning issues that don't get even close to the attention they deserve but kills hughe amounts people daily. Far more than climate change. Wellfare deases, poisons in our drinkingwaters and enviroment etc.
5:50 I much prefer the Return of the Unconqured Sun
How is the slowing of the Gulf Stream hurting or helping ?
Is England going to "freeze over" ?
12:00 has the colossal dump of oil from BP's Deepwater Horizon fiasco been measured into your observations ?
You should be offended . . . I was
Just at the end, one last interruption for an advertisement popped up.
For a gizmo that will help me get free power if I buy instructions to build it.
And it definately popped at the top of the scam meter when Googled
Shameful !
Although I enjoyed most of the content I find your video a bit disingenuous when you suggest that the past year has been the the hottest on record going back to the 80s since measurements have been recorded however we have ice cores and deep sea cores that go back hundreds of thousands if not millions of years giving us data on co2 levels air pollution various other Environmental measurements and certainly we are in a cooling period now compared to that historical data there have been much greater levels of CO2 in history by factors of 20 or more and he as well I find your tactics of fear as a bit sad to be honest
NOT ONE CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE PREDICTION MADE IN 50 YEARS EVER CAME TRUE? NOT ONE? Man contributes OR RELEASES less than 1% of CO2 in the world. so 99% is released by nature like volcanos etc. The biggest man made release of CO2 in history was the demolition of the pipeline? Flying 2000 jets to Davos twice a year doesn’t help. If I’m wrong please provide me with the details n I’ll reconsider. Also On what DATA is your CLIMATE MODELING BASED ON? With ALL THE WEATHER MODIFICATIONS DUMPING ALL KINDS OF TOXIC METALS AND OTHER THINGS IN THE SKIES HOW CAN YOU GET A GOOD BASELINE FOR ACCURATE MODELING? FACTS
MATTER TO ME. SO PLEASE PUT YOUR INTELLECT BACK OVER YOUR EMOTIONS AND REALIZE YOUR BEING LIED TO. IT’S THE GREATEST HOAX AND GRIFT OF POWER AND MONEY IN HISTORY? WTFUP PEOPLE before its too late! PEACE OUT LFBF DYOR MAGA TYHP
You guys explain it so even I can understand most of it. I had to watch twice
Hunga hunga tonga volcano, placed 13% more h2o moisture into the upper atmosphere. Which will take 20 to 30 bleed out. 5 parts per million at this point in time. Hence the partially dynamic weather system seen around the world for the next 20 years.
when will you look at sun in the 2030s the sun corona shutdown for 7 years NEIL TYSON DEGRASSE
Wait for the 2024's statistics, it would be much worse!!!
Does Gavin's model manage to account for tipping points? We know that for example the polar melting can cause a release of methane when the permafrost stops being 'perma'.
CO2 between 300 and 2000 ppm does not govern the climate on a water planet. Why could primates develop in africa and all other continents when CO2 was 1000 ppm? Note this. Everything that is politicized is exaggerated, clitmate science is not an exception. Listen to the scientists like the ones above. Divide everything they by 2 and you are closer to reality. That is just a fact of human behavior.
Curious how co2 fertilization and global greening have changed modeling.
This seems to be a 180 shift in conventional climate change understanding in the last 8 years.
We seem to understand the consequences of urinating too much in a pool but not what happens when we burn stuff for energy.
We don't know who struck first, us or them. But we do know it was us that scorched the sky
– Neil
I was a high school student in 1972…it was the year of the first earth day event. We knew then humans were contributing to global warming..burning fossil fuels..etc..50 years later..reality has caught up and we meet this global warming with deviance, fake truths, conspiracy theorists and drill baby drill😢
Hi folks,
I was curious about the bowl shape of your climate model. Is there some mathematical formula here to predict it's growth; Mandlebrot Set, Golden Ratio etc.
"we we we we we have the ability" – who is we?
Just a bunch of guys having fun and teaching at the same time. Love it.
The solutions to global warming don’t make sense and if you just point that out you’re accused of trying to stop the solution. Instead of building pedestrian friendly communities and efficient public transportation we have really high fuel efficiency standards on cars and electric cars pushed. Instead of building roads and buildings that reflect heat or moving things further north carbon taxes and more government regulations. Instead of producing things locally we still ship them around the world but our toaster has to use less electricity. The solution always seems to be excessively regulated consumer products and complicated tax schemes.
We ARE on a runaway train….this baloney that there is even the possibility of stopping CO2 production is the definition of hopium!
The population of the world has doubled since 1995. Maybe it's all the extra body heat.
“We’ve been tracking temperatures with these stations since the 1980s” then proceeds to show a graphic with temperatures from the 1800s. I don’t think most people question that the world is warming. They question why it’s warming (ie the contention that humans are responsible so we should live in caves and ‘depopulate’ the world). People doubt the correlation not the warming. It like saying my wife snores every night which causes the sun to rise in the morning. If your models fail to predict the impact then the hypothesis is proven wrong
The whole farce of Human caused global change is based on computer models. There has not been one piece of empirical evidence that man is causing any of these natural changes.
I debated Gavin 10 years ago on his climate site . He doesn’t know anything new since then
Neil is a hack. Doesn't actually know anything, except how to lie
Randall Carlson claims humans have seen 16 climate disasters in 150,000 years.
If you only go back 150 years it's a problem. If yogo back longer you realize we'recoming out of an ice age.
just think of the amount of heat required to melt the amount of ice in the time that is happening and calculate from that, also if and when the ice is not there anymore, think in latent heat temperature spike and calcúlate just from that ….and you will see if we are good or not now or tomorrow
Have you ever seen an instance where science has said, "we have to rethink the science because of new discoveries", it happens all the time. So is science the keeper of truth and facts?
https://youtu.be/7LVSrTZDopM?si=xSa_pi3dl9Fd11gl
So the reason the climate change was wrong wasn't that the data was wrong or that they didn't put it in incorrectly or they analyzed it incorrectly is that there was an x Factor that they weren't aware of and The x Factor was a government maybe the American government may be a different government controlled by corporations or by whoever is controlling is doing things that are causing things to happen that the climate scientists aren't accounting for like a lowfield sonics lasers or lasers used to influence the pathway of storms by ionizing particular parts of the atmosphere.
Not sure if this was mentioned in any other comment, but your American Flag is not hung the correct way. The Blue field should always be in the left hand corner.
Fascinating when we miss the obvious and then trip over it. So many discoveries seem to happen this way.
But the end result is climate modeling improves.
Great work.
Well, the Thames no longer freezes hard, so . .
Please explain ocean sequestration again. The simple math says that the ocean sequesters half of everything we put into the air. But then are we not fully sequestering it as in does it come back out of the ocean? It seems that the oceans are another (LARGE) variable in the climate modeling math, that is still poorly understood?
When the Philippines experienced, 3 months of rain in just 24hours, you will surely pray to your God that it wont happen to your country, the science cant win against the planet earth and who creates it.
You have predictions that are certain? Tell me more.
I remember in the days after 11/9 it was reported that the average temperature in the US actually increased a small but noticeable amount because of the lack of planes contributing to pollution, less pollution allowed more light getting through heating the country.
So the 97% of scientists don't know what they are talking about.