April 5, 2025

49 thoughts on “Sea levels rose more than expected in 2024 | BBC News

  1. Britain has some of the best and longest tide gauge data. UK-average value for the long term climate change component of MSL (mean sea level)change is estimated from a comparison of tide gauge and geological rates at a number of UK sites. This average long term trend is estimated as 1.4 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 (NTSLF). That's 108mm (just over 4 inches) extra sea level rise by the end of the century. That's an accounting error. And it's not accelerating.

    Reviews of global tide gauge data show sea-level rise is linear and very slow around 3mm per year. There is no correlation between sea level change and the change in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

    As regards NOAA tide gauge data, let's look at some examples from around the world. N.B. All sites show a linear Relative Sea Level Trend: Kanmen, China 2.40mm /yr; Sydney, Australia 0.75mm/yr; Ferandina Beach, Florida 2.20mm/yr; Los Angeles, California 1.04mm/yr; Mera, Japan 3.8mm; Cascais, Portugal 1.32mm/yr; Newlyn, UK 1.94mm/yr.
    Jevrejeva, et al (2014) estimated 2 mm/year (± 0.3), and Church and White (2006) estimated 1.7mm/year (± 0.3). So that's a total rise of between 126 and 151mm (less than 6 inches) from 2024 to the end of the century. A paper from Frederikse et al (2018) shows a global trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014. That's 6cm by 2050, and 30cm by 2100.
    Or try PSMSL data: Kwajalein (Marshall Islands) 1.95mm/yr; Maldives (Indian Ocean) 3.21mm/yr; Lautoka (Fiji Islands, Pacific Ocean) 3.50mm/yr; Port Elisabeth (South Africa) 2.34mm/yr.
    If one prefers satellite data NOAA's trend was +3.0mm/year Global Mean Sea Level (1993-2022), again linear last time I looked (but hey, it may have accelerated in the last month).
    NASA satellite data (1993-present) for Global Mean Sea Level shows a linear rise of 3.3mm per year. That's the same as two stacked penny coins.
    None of this data shows any relationship to the exponential increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. It's going to be decades before even your big toe is submerged.

  2. In the past few months, the World's Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has declined by 0.5°C so that it has returned to the temperature in December 2015 (Daily Sea Surface Temperature World 60°N-60°S 0-360°E NOAA OISST V2.1 dataset available on the ClimateReanalyzer website). The recent off trend temperature rise began before El Niño and was not predicted by climate scientists. The size of the temperature rise was not predicted by climate scientists. The rapid cooling of the ocean back down 2015 levels before the commencement of the next La Niña was not predicted.

    The top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere.

    If the heat energy content of the World's oceans has increased by 400ZJ since 1960, and the atmosphere has absorbed about ¹/100 th that amount, there is no way an increase of 100ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere has forced that much heat into the ocean. The atmosphere does not hold enough energy, plus infrared radiation cannot penetrate the ocean surfaces beyond a few millimeters (small fractions of an inch) so increasing atmospheric CO2 cannot be an explanation of ocean warming It is not possible for the energy in the atmosphere to affect the ocean temperature changes seen recently or in the long term. In fact the atmosphere is not trapping more energy as the "greenhouse gas" CO2 increases, but the atmosphere is emitting increasing amounts of energy into space as longwave radiation. This is contrary to the idea of man-made global warming. Nearly all of the energy the ocean receives comes directly from sunlight.

    The relationship between the global surface air temperature (HadCRUT3) and the tropical sea surface temperature (NOAA) is that quite often a change in sea surface temperature appears to be initiated 1-3 months before the corresponding change in surface air temperature. In such cases, the temperature in the lower atmosphere appears to be controlled by change in sea surface temperatures, and not the other way around.

    The current warming trend, and the heat of 2023-2024 is not explained by the rise in gases like CO2. There has been an increase in Absorbed Solar Radiation of around +1W/m²/decade with a record anomaly in 2023 around +1.83W/m² (CERES) or +1.31W/m² (ERA5). This is correlated with Total Solar Irradiance (how shiny the Sun is), which reached an all time record-breaking high in 2023 and 2024 as confirmed by satellite measurement (SORCE and TSIS). 90% of this solar radiation is absorbed directly by the ocean. 1% is absorbed by the atmosphere. Changing Greenhouse gas concentration has no effect on this increase in ASR. There is more energy from the Sun reaching the ocean, and this is warming it, and then the ocean is warming the atmosphere, then the atmosphere is radiating this energy away into space at an increasing rate. “The EEI [Earth's Energy Imbalance] trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations" "Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies" (Goessling et al., 2024).

  3. The retreat of glaciers such as those in Himalayas began before the current warming and was caused by reduced precipitation (Shekhar, 2017. Singh, 2020.). This supported by further work done by Schneider (2014), and Chen (2019). The retreat was due to a reduction in precipitation. Currently, precipitation is half of what it was 20 years previously. Research by Salerno (2015) "challenges the assumption of the main driver [i.e. temperature] of glacier mass changes".

    Satellite data shows the glaciers in the Karakoram largely unaffected by current warming. Of 1219 glaciers surveyed, 79.5% were stable, 5.3% were advancing, and 7.6% retreating (Rankl, 2014).

    Swiss Alps glacier extents were smaller than 2000 C.E. during the warmer-than-today Roman and Medieval Warm Periods and throughout 75% of the Holocene, or when temperatures were 1-3°C warmer (Schimmelpfennig et al., 2022).

    Glaciologists Bohleber et al, 2020 of the Austrian Academy of Science discovered from ice cores that the 3500-meter high Weißseespitze summit was ice free 5900 years ago.

    There is “no evidence” that Jostedalsbreen, a southern Norway glacier, even existed during the first several thousand years of the Holocene, or when CO2 hovered near 260 ppm (Winker, 2021).

    In Alaska's Glacier Bay the melt rate from 1780 to 1880 was much greater than the melt rate from 1880 to the present.

    There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. Glacial retreat is certainly not evidence of this.

  4. The whole of East and West Antarctica is cooling, and has been for 40 years. East Antarctica has cooled by an impressive 0.7°C per decade. Resulting in an overall substantial and statistically significant decline of 2.8°C since 1980. So much for "Global" warming. I am referring to a paper by Zhu et al (2021) that looked at the reanalysed ERA5 satellite dataset. Check out table 4. Furthermore, the Antarctic Peninsula ice has since been shown to be on the increase “The eastern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet has grown in area over the last 20 years, due to changing wind and sea ice patterns.” (University of Cambridge, May, 2022.)

    In reality, "there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979." (Fogt et al, 2022. Published in Nature) "since 1979 is the only time all four seasons demonstrate significant increases in total Antarctic sea ice in the context of the twentieth century".

    A study of Antarctic ice shelves from 1980 to 2021 (Banwell et al, 2023) showed meltwater volume dropped with "decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.”

    "Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area. Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade." (Andreasen et al, 2023). It is from a paper entitled "Change in Antarctic Ice Shelf Area from 2009 to 2019". They use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Also, as the mass gain (661Gt) was given, you could calculate the volume of the ice gained using the formula: Volume = Mass ÷ Density (assume Density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³). This would give you (well not you obviously) an Ice Gain Volume ≈721km³. That's how much extra of the lovely white stuff there is around Antarctica. Imagine standing in the centre of this extra ice. It would stretch beyond the horizon in all directions and would be 45 storeys high.

    Antarctica contributes 0.36mm to sea-level rise per year (that's essentially nothing as well). At the current rate it will take well over ¼ million years to melt, but we are due for two more glacial periods in that time. That ice is here to stay.

  5. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains about 2.9 million cubic kilometers of ice (NSIDC). Using the formula M=Vd (and assuming density of glacier ice 0.9167 Gt/km³), the mass of GrIS is approximately 2.7 million Gt.

    If we use the figure of annual loss of 270 Gt, we get 0.01%, or 10,000 years, so around 12,024 AD.

    The problem is the average figure of 270 Gt (NASA data 2002-2023, 0.8mm/year sea-level rise, so a non-problem). That average value and the data range used gives no understanding of the changes taking place. Prior to 2000 GrIS was not losing mass. From 2002 to 2012 mass loss accelerated, then from 2012 to the present mass loss trend decelerated (85 Gt, 2021). The changes aren't linear they are sinusoidal and are related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, not the the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

  6. There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis.
    Even the biased UN's IPCC AR6 WG1, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", page 1856, section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed:
    Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions),
    Aridity,
    Avalanche (snow),
    Mean precipitation,
    Average Wind Speed,
    Coastal Flood,
    Agricultural drought,
    Hydrological drought,
    Erosion of Coastlines,
    Fire Weather (hot and windy),
    Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods),
    Frost,
    Hail,
    Heavy Rain,
    Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms,
    Landslides,
    Marine Heatwaves,
    Ocean Acidity,
    Radiation at the Earth’s Surface,
    River/Lake Floods,
    Sand and Dust Storms,
    Sea Level,
    Severe Wind Storms,
    Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets,
    Antarctic Sea Ice,
    Tropical Cyclones.

  7. There are so many factors to include when it comes to sea level rise that are never mentioned. They should take every one of them into consideration instead of screaming the sky is falling. I wish everyone would take some time to research instead of jumping on the main stream media band wagon.

  8. FOR this sitution responce devolopment,or in this cause We "HINDU" respect (DO PUJA) TREE, RIVER(GANGA/JAMUNA/SWARASWATI) ,SNAKE,ELEPHANT,TIGER is stay with DURGA, BISHNU,SIBA our all HINDU respect NATURE,our MUNI RISHI understand it from ancient(RAMAYANA) time , and SCIENCE is falior.from BHARAT.(INDIA).

  9. I don’t want to argue with this lady, but I’m from Milford Haven and the highest recorded High tide we ever had was 50 years ago, so can one of you explain to me why it’s not higher now

  10. in this video explains about natural events that occur due to certain factors, which have an impact on nature. for example at the poles there is uneven ice breaking, forest fires, logging, then earthquakes and cracking of the earth's plates. therefore it is important for us to protect our earth.

  11. My comment on the video I am very concerned about the damage to nature caused by human activities, which causes forest fires, uneven sea ice, the rupture of the earth's plates, this is caused by human activities, and damage to the surrounding environment. Therefore, let us protect our natural environment so that natural damage does not occur.

  12. I wonder what Neanderthal did, 100,000 years ago. If they would have paid more taxes, maybe there wouldn’t have been an ice age and we would still have mammoth.

  13. Why should Americans pay a tax that the two biggest offenders (India and China), don’t?

    Also, 98% of the plastic in the ocean comes from 3 river systems. #1 Ganges #2 Yangtze #3 Congo. None of these are anywhere near the USA (or Europe).

    Stop spreading misinformation

  14. Man made paper with a picture of earth in it, man burn paper with a picture of earth in it, man and earth like paper are no more.! The end.
    Man lives only of now and not entirely of the consequences of there own actions.
    Man forgets the need to Remember, at there own parallel.
    then Man oh man there be no more men.

  15. This is ridiculously untrue. I encourage you to visit Dry Tortugas National Park, or any other similar location with detailed historical records. Experience nature and its wonders without these absurd alarms. You don’t need any more panic in your life.

  16. The mentioned levels at 30 sec are wrong. The sealevel rise was constant during at least 150 years and was about 2,3 mm per year. No way that it is 43 cm per year. We must never forget that some places sink and other regions rise.

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